Making defence a lever for sovereignty, innovation and growth 

Who can forget the surreal scene that unfolded in the Oval Office on 28 February 2025? With the whole world watching on, Donald Trump and his vice-president J.D. Vance humiliated the head of state of a country under attack by a hostile power, sending an implicit message to all those who believed they were protected under the American security umbrella: nothing is certain any more. Against this backdrop of geopolitical upheaval, yesterday’s certainties are crumbling in the wake of armed conflict, systemic crises, technological competition and the compulsive tweets of Elon Musk and other close allies of the US President who are advocating for moves such as the withdrawal of the United States from NATO and the UN. This scene in the Oval Office, which history will remember as a watershed moment, is a wake-up call for the countries of Europe: when it comes to defence, the question of sovereignty is no longer theoretical – it is now profoundly existential. The return of high-intensity conflict to European soil, epitomised by Russian aggression in Ukraine, had already prompted Europeans to step up their defence efforts. They must now do even more and adopt a new mindset. It is no longer simply a question of developing military capabilities. It’s about gaining strategic autonomy. 

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AI : Overhyped Buzzword or Economic Game-Changer?  

Are AI technologies overhyped or a real economic opportunity? This question took center stage at the 2025 edition of the Journée de l’Economie held at the Chamber of Commerce on March 24. The event brought together leading business and political leaders, tech innovators, and bold thinkers, to dive into the impact of AI on our economy. 

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Faced with Trump’s America, we need Europe “to be united in adversity”

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election heralds the return of an economic policy that, mockery aside, can be summed up in two words: America First It is not for us to comment on the US public’s democratic choice. However, it is worth analysing the economic backstory. How is the US economy doing as the Biden years draw to a close? Quite well, judging by the main indicators. GDP growth in the US was 2.5% in 2023 (versus just 0.5% in the European Union) and is likely to come in above that figure for 2024.

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Budget 2025: stay on course 

The 2025 state budget is the most eagerly anticipated document of the year, setting out government policy. It will be delivered alongside multi-annual programming for 2025-2028. After the “transitional budget” in 2024, prepared by the previous government and “adjusted” by the new administration in March, the document presented on 9 October 2024 by the Finance Minister plainly sets out the full policy direction of the CSV-DP coalition. The Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce will have the opportunity to analyse the documents in detail over the coming weeks. However, given the importance of the occasion, here are a few immediate thoughts. 

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European competitiveness: an “existential challenge”

“An existential challenge”. That is how Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019 and prime minister of Italy from 2021 to 2022, described what awaits Europe, while presenting his report on the future of European competitiveness[1] on 9 September. He is not the first to warn of the risks relating to the recent economic trajectory of the European Union. But because of his status, experience, expertise, and the quality of the analysis work that he provided, his words resonated particularly intensely. “Existential”. I invite each of us to be aware of the significance of this adjective. It is not Europe as a geographic entity that is under threat, but rather its social, political, and perhaps even civilisational models, with their values of liberty, peace, democracy and equality. From this perspective, Draghi’s report reaches a clear conclusion: our children’s quality of life tomorrow depends on nothing less than our ability to restore European competitiveness today.

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Elections on 9 June – what businesses expect from Europe 

Just a few days out from the European elections, we find ourselves facing quite the paradox. The relevance of the European Union has never been more clearly demonstrated than during the current parliamentary term. During the healthcare crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the EU launched an €806 billion recovery plan. The beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022 prompted the European Union to take decisive action, marking its emergence as a geopolitical force. During the energy crisis, the EU’s measures averted blackouts and supported the economy. And yet, as one of the most intense political cycles in EU history comes to an end, there is a worrying rise in Euroscepticism across member states. Politically, the Union could be significantly weakened after the 9 June elections, which would be tragic, especially in view of the unease ahead of the Hungarian presidency, set to begin on 1 July. We need a strong Europe now more than ever. 

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Europe’s uncoupling: a reality but not a fatality

The European Union has long had the ambition of rivalling the United States from an economic viewpoint. It actually managed to do so in the late 2000s. In 2008, at current prices, the Eurozone ($14.16 trillion) and United States ($14.77 trillion) had very similar levels of GDP. Students learned about this achievement and politicians basked in its glory, as if it proved the success of the European project.

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